European satellite communications providers could help to make up any future satellite communications shortfalls in Ukraine.
The fallout from the disastrous meeting between Ukraine’s president Volodymyr Zelenskyy and his American counterpart Donald Trump on 28th February reverberated into March. Ukraine famously benefitted from access to SpaceX’s Starlink Satellite Communications (SATCOM) service in the immediate aftermath of Russia’s second invasion of the country on 24th February 2022. Starlink terminals began arriving in the country from 28th February. Since then, media reports note that thousands of terminals have been delivered.
Ukraine’s government, military and civilian sectors are all using Starlink which provides wideband SATCOM links across Ku-band (14 gigahertz/GHz uplink/10.9GHz to 12.75GHz downlink) and Ka-band (26.5GHz to 40GHz uplink/18GHz to 20GHz downlink) channels. According to Starlink, users typically enjoy download speeds of between 25 megabits-per-second/mbps and 220mbps. Upload speeds of between five megabits-per-second and 20mbps are also achievable. Latency rates across the link range between 25 milliseconds/ms and up to 100ms.
Starlink terminals are difficult to jam on account of their small antennas and narrow beams. Jammers must be relatively close to the terminal antenna, and pointing directly at it, to have a hope of success. Starlink has proven popular with the military. The link has been used to provide tactical and operational trunk communications. The low latency, high bandwidths and relatively resiliency of Starlink signals vis-à-vis jamming has also made the link attractive for Ukrainian Uninhabited Aerial Vehicle (UAV) operators.
Musk it always be like this?
Starlink’s provision has not been without controversy. In February 2023, SpaceX’s president Gwynne Shotwell complained about Ukrainian military use of Starlink arguing that it was “never meant to be weaponised.” She claimed that using the link to support Ukrainian UAV operations went beyond the scope of the agreement the company had with the Ukrainian government to use the network. Ms. Shotwell’s comments were reinforced by SpaceX founder Elon Musk that same month. Mr. Musk wrote on Twitter that “we will not enable escalation of conflict (sic) that may lead to World War Three.” Controversies have continued regarding the extent to which SpaceX denies coverage over Russian-occupied Crimea, in southern Ukraine. Claims have circulated that this is having a negative effect on Ukrainian military operations.
In the wake of the meeting between Messrs. Trump and Zelenskyy, the former ordered a pause of all US military assistance to Ukraine on 4th March. Ostensibly, the move was intended to encourage the Ukrainian government to embark on peace negotiations. Reports on 11th March noted that this assistance would be resumed with immediate effect. The move followed Ukraine’s agreement to observe a 30-day ceasefire contingent on Russian agreement. As of the time of writing, in mid-March, the Russian government is yet to follow suit.
Enter Old Europe
The involvement of Mr. Musk and SpaceX in the ongoing conflict raises concerns. Starlink’s capabilities make it an indispensably useful system. However, Mr. Musk’s mercurial tendencies, and attraction to extreme right politics, raise questions as to the extent Starlink can be relied upon as a service. What if Mr. Musk decides once again to restrict, or end, the provision of Starlink to Ukraine? Such a decision could risk having a profoundly negative effect on Ukraine’s operational and tactical situation.
Reports surfaced on 7th March that Eutelsat could increase its involvement in Ukraine, with the company saying that it could provide 40,000 civilian and military grade terminals into the country. Eutelsat continued that these terminals could be provided within a couple of months. The company’s shareholders include the French and UK governments, both staunch allies of Ukraine. In theory, this should make it harder for the company to threaten to terminate its services in Ukraine a la Mr. Musk.
Sources close to Eutelsat confirmed to Armada that the company is already supplying low Earth orbit satellite connectivity in Ukraine. This connectivity is sold to Ukraine on a commercial basis via a distributor based in western Europe. In terms of capability, Eutelsat’s links have the same latency as those furnished by Starlink and provide similar geographical coverage. The source added that, whereas Starlink primarily sells on a business-to-consumer basis, Eutelsat provides business-to-business and business-to-government services. Like Starlink, Eutelsat’s constellation provides Ka-band and Ku-band links. Reports note that Eutelsat’s links support data rates of circa 150mbps.
A deeper deployment of Eutelsat terminals and services in Ukraine could make up for any Starlink shortfall should the latter be restricted, or terminated, in the future: “We are actively collaborating with European institutions and business partners to enable the swift deployment of additional user terminals (in Ukraine) for critical missions and infrastructure,” the source shared. It seems highly likely that Eutelsat will increase its footprint in Ukraine in the coming months. This will also provide the company with a useful testing ground to evaluate the performance of its SATCOM links in a warzone.
by Dr. Thomas Withington
