Donald Trump-Narendra Modi bonhomie notwithstanding, it seems the United States considers India as a major adversary not only in matters relating to trade but also for becoming a major source of precursors and equipment for drug traffickers.
This may sound strange, but it is true that India’s alleged role in promoting drug trafficking in the United States figures prominently in the latest “Annual Threat Assessment of the U.S. Intelligence Community, 2025″ report, which was released officially on March 25.
Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard delivered the opening testimony at a Senate Select Committee on Intelligence.
Highlighting the main contents in the report, Ms. Gabbard said how cartels, gangs, and other transnational criminal organizations are engaging in a wide array of illicit activity, from narcotics trafficking to money laundering to smuggling of illegal immigrants and human trafficking, which endanger the health, welfare, and safety of everyday Americans.
Based on the latest reporting available, for a year-long period ending October 2024, cartels were largely responsible for the deaths of more than 54,000 U.S. citizens from synthetic opioids, according to her.
She highlighted “how Mexico-based transnational criminal organizations (TCOs) are the main suppliers of illicit fentanyl to the U.S. market and are adapting to enforcement and regulatory pressures by using multiple sources and methods to procure precursor chemicals and equipment primarily from China and India, many of which are dual-use chemicals used in legitimate industries.”
Independent fentanyl producers are, she added, increasingly fragmenting the drug trade in Mexico. “The availability of precursor chemicals and ease of making illicit fentanyl have enabled independent actors to increase illicit fentanyl production and smuggling operations in Mexico.”
Coming to the text of the report, it is clearly said that “China remains the primary source country for illicit fentanyl precursor chemicals and pill pressing equipment, followed by India. Mexico-based chemical brokers circumvent international controls through mislabeled shipments and the purchase of unregulated dual-use chemicals.”
So, for the Trump Administration, India has been bracketed with China in being a source of supply of illicit drugs, including fentanyl, heroin, and methamphetamine, for the U.S. market.
Ironically, it was stressed by the American intelligence czar Tulsi Gabbard, who is perceived to be one of President Trump’s pro-India cabinet colleagues.
Incidentally, she was the first high-ranking official from the second Donald Trump administration to visit India on March 16 on a three-day trip. During the stay, she called on Prime Minister Narendra Modi and held talks with India’s national security advisor, Ajit Doval. She also joined intelligence and security officials from around 20 countries at a conclave chaired by Daval.
It is also important to note that immediately after the conclusion of Ms. Gabbard’s trip to India, the U.S. federal agents, on March 20, arrested two of the top-ranking employees of a Hyderabad-based company in New York City.
Apparently, two Indian companies — Raxuter Chemicals and Athos Chemicals — have been charged with criminal conspiracies to distribute and import fentanyl precursor chemicals to the United States. Bhavesh Lathiya, a founder and senior executive of Raxuter Chemicals, was arrested in New York on January 4 on the same charges.
Though quite a few Chinese companies, over the years, have been charged for such “criminal conspiracies for distribution and import of Fentanyl,” a Schedule II controlled substance that is considered to be the deadliest drug threat currently facing the U.S., it is probably for the first time that Indian companies and its executives have been charged for distribution and import of fentanyl precursor chemicals to that country.
Incidentally, narcotics are also a big problem for India, particularly because it is a victim of narco-terrorism, terrorism that is sustained and financed by illegal poppy cultivation and drug trafficking.
Wedged between the Golden Crescent (Pakistan, Afghanistan, and Iran) and the Golden Triangle (Myanmar, Laos, and Thailand), as far as drug production is concerned, India is faced with protracted insurgencies and long-running cross-border terrorist activities.
India’s northeastern states of Arunachal Pradesh, Nagaland, Manipur, and Mizoram, which share a 1,624-km porous border with Myanmar, have served as transit routes for illegal drugs originating in the Golden Triangle.
In the West, the bordering states of Punjab and Jammu & Kashmir have been the conduit routes of the drugs from the Golden Crescent. According to the International Narcotics Control Bureau, drug trafficking syndicates and organized criminal networks in the Golden Crescent smuggle 60 to 70 percent of their drugs to India, Sri Lanka, and South Africa by sea.
Reportedly, 2,826 kg of drugs, mainly comprising heroin and cocaine, were seized across India’s ports and coastal waters in 2023—the highest in five years. In February 2024, in one of its biggest interdictions, the Narcotics Control Bureau (NCB) and the Indian Navy also intercepted a boat carrying some 3,132 kg of drugs worth over INR 1,000 crores (approximately US$119 million).
Against this background, the American intelligence report equating India with China as a primary source of illegal drugs and enabling “nonstate groups, both directly and indirectly” is a little surprising, though Ms. Gabbard did mention to the Senators that many of the precursor chemicals and equipment originating in India are “dual-use chemicals used in legitimate industries.”
The aforesaid Indian companies, charged under American laws, could be the victims of this dichotomy.
A noteworthy aspect of this year’s DNI assessment report is that the Trump Administration seems to have prioritized the non-state criminal groups like drug traffickers and terrorists putting American lives and livelihoods at risk over key nation-states such as China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea who have the capability to threaten the interests of the United States.
This is just opposite to the emphasis on the adversarial state actors that the Biden Administration attached to last year’s intelligence assessment report by elaborating on them in detail right at the beginning.
This year, the report starts with the transnational criminals, terrorists, and other non-state actors who are threatening and impacting the lives of U.S. citizens, the security and prosperity of the homeland, and U.S. strength at home and abroad.
The report then deals with the major state actors that present proximate and enduring threats to the United States and its interests in the world.
Predictably, China stands out as the actor most capable of threatening U.S. interests globally, though the report says that Beijing is also more cautious than Russia, Iran, and North Korea about risking its economic and diplomatic image in the world by being too aggressive and disruptive.
The report mentions that Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea—individually and collectively—are challenging U.S. interests in the world by attacking or threatening others in their regions with both asymmetric and conventional hard power tactics and promoting alternative systems to compete with the United States, primarily in trade, finance, and security. They seek to challenge the United States and other countries through deliberate campaigns to gain an advantage while also trying to avoid direct war.
The report says growing cooperation between and among these adversaries is increasing their fortitude against the United States, the potential for hostilities with any one of them to draw in another, and pressure on other global actors to choose sides.
The report assesses that China is America’s most capable strategic competitor, even though it is currently facing challenges from a slowing economy and potential instability if socioeconomic grievances lead to large-scale unrest.
China is building its military capability, in part, to gain an advantage in the event of a military conflict with the United States over Beihing’s efforts toward unification with Taiwan. China’s military is also expanding its presence in the Asia-Pacific region, with a focus on disputed territorial claims in the East China and South China Seas.
The report describes how Beijing is advancing its cyber capabilities for sophisticated operations aimed at stealing sensitive U.S. government and private sector information and pre-positioning additional asymmetric attack options that may be deployed in a conflict. It also mentions Chinese dominance in global markets and strategically important supply chains.
About Russia, the report talks of how Moscow is building a more modern and survivable nuclear force designed to circumvent U.S. missile defense through reliable retaliatory strike potential.
Russia’s nuclear and conventional military capabilities, along with its demonstrated economic and military resilience, make it a formidable competitor, the report says, adding how Moscow has more nuclear weapons than any other nation that could inflict catastrophic damage on the United States and the world in the event of a major war that Russian leaders feared put them and their regime at serious risk.
The report noted that Russia had announced last year updates to its public nuclear doctrine, expanding the conditions under which Russia would consider using nuclear weapons.
Russia has also developed advanced cyber capabilities and has attempted to pre-position access to U.S. critical infrastructure for asymmetric options and make it a persistent cyber threat. Russia is also fielding new capabilities and anti-satellite weapons meant to degrade U.S. and allied space infrastructure.
According to the report, the war in Ukraine has afforded Moscow a wealth of lessons regarding combat against Western weapons and intelligence in a large-scale war. This experience will probably challenge future U.S. defense planning, including against other adversaries with whom Moscow is sharing those lessons learned.
If the report is any indication, the American assessment is that Russia, in the past year, has seized the upper hand in its full-scale invasion of Ukraine and is on a path to accrue greater leverage to press Kyiv and its Western backers to negotiate an end to the war that grants Moscow concessions it seeks.
“Continuing the Russia-Ukraine war perpetuates strategic risks to the United States of unintended escalation to large-scale war, the potential use of nuclear weapons, heightened insecurity among NATO Allies, particularly in Central, Eastern, and Northern Europe, and a more emboldened China and North Korea,” it says.
On Iran, the report says that Teheran continues to seek expansion of its influence in the Middle East despite the degradation of its proxies and defenses during the Gaza conflict. But, Iran is not building nuclear weapons, and Supreme Leader Khamenei has not authorized the nuclear weapons program he suspended in 2003.
In its assessment of North Korea, the report says its supremo, Kim Jong Un, is pursuing stronger strategic and conventional capabilities that can target U.S. forces and allies in the region, as well as the U.S. Homeland, to bolster North Korea’s leverage and stature, defend the regime, and achieve at least tacit recognition as a nuclear weapons power. Kim views his strategic weapons advances since 2019, deepening ties with Russia and North Korea’s economic durability as strengthening his negotiating position against Washington’s demands for denuclearization and lessening his need for sanctions relief.
North Korea is probably prepared to conduct another nuclear test on short notice and continues to flight test ICBMs to demonstrate their increasing capabilities to threaten the American homeland as leverage in future negotiations, the report says.
Overall, the 2025 Annual Threat Assessment reflects the collective insights of the U.S. Intelligence Community, which it says is based on the analysis of information available as of March 18. It will predictably evoke critical responses both in America’s domestic circle and outside. Some U.S. partners, like India, have reasons to be worried.
- Author and veteran journalist Prakash Nanda is Chairman of the Editorial Board of the EurAsian Times and has been commenting on politics, foreign policy, and strategic affairs for nearly three decades. He is a former National Fellow of the Indian Council for Historical Research and a recipient of the Seoul Peace Prize Scholarship.
- CONTACT: prakash.nanda (at) hotmail.com
