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What Does It Take To Score A No. 1 Album? Fans, Great Music ... And Timing

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This week, rapper NF owns the Billboard 200 with his new album Perception, garnering the musician not only his first leader on the chart, but his first top 10 effort as well. The news came as a shock to many, as the hip-hop musician is not exactly a superstar, and he doesn’t fit the mold when it comes to the type of act that is expected to run the show. 

Traditionally, the No. 1 spot on the Billboard 200, the chart that measures the most popular albums in the United States every week, is reserved only for the biggest names in the business. Those who can send a song to the highest reaches of the Hot 100 (which tracks and ranks singles) and dominate pop culture are good candidates for the peak slot on the accompanying tally. While their numbers may sometimes be eye-popping, it’s never shocking to see names like Beyoncé, Drake, Jay Z or Taylor Swift debut new collections at No. 1, but they aren’t the only ones who can rule.

So how did this happen? How did someone with no hit singles and little name recognition beyond a select group of fans upend the decades-old charts and come out on top this week?

There is a lot that factors into a musician landing at the pinnacle of any chart, and what is required changes with the times. More and more, as people stop buying albums and begin streaming the music they love incessantly—with all of those plays counting towards a number of rankings—a different kind of artist is finding its way to the throne on the Billboard 200, and there have been plenty of examples of artists without even one real hit single to their credit reaching No. 1, such as NF.

There is plenty more to be said about how streaming and the death of record store culture is changing the music industry and what does well and what doesn’t, but there is something else that, fortunately for some while unfortunately for others, factors into an album either becoming a No. 1 or being relegated to another position inside the top 10: circumstances. That is not what hundreds of employees at record labels, promotion companies and PR firms would like to admit, but sometimes, even the most famous names with smashes on their new records can’t compete with even one other title that happens to be released in the same week or a major event that just happens to appear out of nowhere.

Perception landed at No. 1 on the Billboard 200 by moving just 55,000 units, a surprisingly small sum for the top spot, but enough during that one frame to make him the champion. Just one week prior, Shania Twain ruled with Now, which shifted 137,000 equivalent copies. She beat out competition from the likes of Demi Lovato and Miley Cyrus—two of the most recognizable pop stars on the planet at the moment—and Tom Petty, who had just passed away. Had Demi released her new collection Tell Me You Love Me just one week later, the 75,000 units it moved would have easily eclipsed NF’s sales figure, and the history books would be written differently. Titles by the late, great Petty and hip-hop upstart A Boogie Wit Da Hoodie also would have triumphed, if only shared a few days later.

NF benefited from choosing an especially quiet week, devoid of competition from bigger fish. That could have been luck, or strategy, or, more likely, a combination of both.

The example profiled above is one of possibly thousands that have occurred over the years, with plenty having popped up over only the past few years. A smash single doesn’t propel sales like it used to for many artists, while working to collect a dedicated fan base and executing a perfect strategy with impeccable timing can secure even the most obscure musicians a chart-owner, which immediately takes their career to a new level.

Having said that, luck still factors in much more than many would like to admit. Releasing an album these days requires almost no advance warning for a handful of artists, and in a moment, a superstar can change the world simply by giving the green light on a secret project. Queen Bey, Drake and Kendrick Lamar, in particular, have proven that a surprise drop from a megastar can destroy anyone’s chances of a No. 1, as can the death of a beloved icon, which can, unfortunately, come at any time. Planning and timing is key when it comes to reaching the coveted slot on the Billboard 200, but as much as those in charge of the biggest players in the music industry would like to control as much as is possible, circumstance rules the charts more than any one person or company ever could.